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Great Investment Ideas is a collection of articles published in the Journal of Portfolio Management from 1993 to 2015. The book contains useful ideas for investment management and trading and discusses the methods, results and evaluation of great investors. It also covers important topics such as the effect of errors in means, variances and co-variances in portfolio selection problems, stock market crashes and stock market anomalies, portfolio theory and practice, evaluation theory, etc. This book is a must-have publication for investors and financial experts, researchers and graduate students in finance.
This book discusses calendar or seasonal anomalies in worldwide equity markets as well as arbitrage and risk' arbitrage. A complete update of US anomalies such as the January turn-of-the year, turn-of-the-month. January barometer, sell in May and go away, holidays, days of the week, options expiry and other effects is given concentrating in the futures markets where these anomalies can be easily applied. Other effects that lend themselves to modified buy and hold cash strategies include some of these as well as presidential election, factor models based on fundamental anomalies and other effects. The ideas have been used successfully by the author in personal and managed accounts and hedge funds. Book jacket.
This volume provides the definitive treatment of fortune's formula or the Kelly capital growth criterion as it is often called. The strategy is to maximize long run wealth of the investor by maximizing the period by period expected utility of wealth with a logarithmic utility function. Mathematical theorems show that only the log utility function maximizes asymptotic long run wealth and minimizes the expected time to arbitrary large goals. In general, the strategy is risky in the short term but as the number of bets increase, the Kelly bettor's wealth tends to be much larger than those with essentially different strategies. So most of the time, the Kelly bettor will have much more wealth than these other bettors but the Kelly strategy can lead to considerable losses a small percent of the time. There are ways to reduce this risk at the cost of lower expected final wealth using fractional Kelly strategies that blend the Kelly suggested wager with cash. The various classic reprinted papers and the new ones written specifically for this volume cover various aspects of the theory and practice of dynamic investing. Good and bad properties are discussed, as are fixed-mix and volatility induced growth strategies. The relationships with utility theory and the use of these ideas by great investors are featured.Contents: "The Early Ideas and Contributions: "Introduction to the Early Ideas and ContributionsExposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk (translated by Louise Sommer) "(D Bernoulli)"A New Interpretation of Information Rate "(J R Kelly, Jr)"Criteria for Choice among Risky Ventures "(H A Latan‚)"Optimal Gambling Systems for Favorable Games "(L Breiman)"Optimal Gambling Systems for Favorable Games "(E O Thorp)"Portfolio Choice and the Kelly Criterion "(E O Thorp)"Optimal Investment and Consumption Strategies under Risk for a Class of Utility Functions "(N H Hakansson)"On Optimal Myopic Portfolio Policies, with and without Serial Correlation of Yields "(N H Hakansson)"Evidence on the ?Growth-Optimum-Model? "(R Roll)""Classic Papers and Theories: "Introduction to the Classic Papers and TheoriesCompetitive Optimality of Logarithmic Investment "(R M Bell and T M Cover)"A Bound on the Financial Value of Information "(A R Barron and T M Cover)"Asymptotic Optimality and Asymptotic Equipartition Properties of Log-Optimum Investment "(P H Algoet and T M Cover)"Universal Portfolios "(T M Cover)"The Cost of Achieving the Best Portfolio in Hindsight "(E Ordentlich and T M Cover)"Optimal Strategies for Repeated Games "(M Finkelstein and R Whitley)"The Effect of Errors in Means, Variances and Co-Variances on Optimal Portfolio Choice "(V K Chopra and W T Ziemba)"Time to Wealth Goals in Capital Accumulation "(L C MacLean, W T Ziemba, and Y Li)"Survival and Evolutionary Stability of Rule the Kelly "(I V Evstigneev, T Hens, and K R Schenk-Hopp‚)"Application of the Kelly Criterion to Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Processes "(Y Lv and B K Meister)""The Relationship of Kelly Optimization to Asset Allocation: "Introduction to the Relationship of Kelly Optimization to Asset AllocationSurvival and Growth with a Liability: Optimal Portfolio Strategies in Continuous Time "(S Browne)"Growth versus Security in Dynamic Investment Analysis "(L C MacLean, W T Ziemba, and G Blazenko)"Capital Growth with Security "(L C MacLean, R Sanegre, Y Zhao, and W T Ziemba)"
The aim of this book is to document, on a solid and convincing foundation, two public policy mistakes of the United States Government that have been extremely costly. First, the failure to combine stocks with long-term government bonds in the Social Security Trust Fund, the way other nations do, has resulted not only in an investment shortfall well into the trillions of dollars, but has also reduced US and global economic growth and increased the national debt. Second, by employing the Unified Budget concept beginning in 1970, the US Government has since then understated its financial deficits by more than $4 trillion and in doing so it has shielded the increase in the debt owed to the public by roughly half.This study documents that the notion of Social Security as a minimal safety net is consistent with the views of both Adam Smith and Friedrich Hayek and that private social security accounts are inefficient and subject to moral hazard and huge productivity losses. It also introduces a novel approach to long-term investing suitable for perpetual funds consistent with the empirical phenomena of risk premia and mean reversion, including no asset sales and the use of short-term borrowing on a rollover basis to cover negative net inflows.The study also proposes that payroll taxes be re-labeled Social Security Contributions and that the Social Security System be made independent and professionally managed based on the Federal Reserve System model.
This book discusses many key topics in investment and risk management, the global economic situation and the shift in global investment strategies. It was largely written during the period of 2007-12, one of the most tumultuous times in global financial markets which called into question not only tenets of economic forecasting and also asset allocation and return strategies. It contains studies of how investors lose money in derivative markets, examples of those who did not and how these disasters could have been prevented. The authors draw some conclusions on the impact of the structural shifts currently underway in the global economy as well as how cyclical trends will affect these industries, the globe and key sectors. The authors zoom in on key growth areas, including emerging markets, their interlinkages and financial trends. The book also covers risk arbitrage and mean reversion strategies in financial and sports betting markets, plus incentives, volatility aspects, risk taking and investments strategies used by hedge funds and university endowments. Topics such as stock market crash predictions, asset liability planning models, various players in financial markets and the evaluation of the greatest investors are also discussed. The book presents tools and case studies of real applications for analyzing a wide variety of investment returns and better assessing the risks which many investors have preferred to ignore in the search of returns. Many security market regularities or anomalies are discussed including political party and January effects as is the process of building scenarios and using Kelly and fractional Kelly strategies to optimize returns. Contents:Key Concepts:Arbitrage, Risk Arbitrage and the Favorite-Longshot BiasThe Bond Stock Earnings Yield Differential ModelInvestor CampsHedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds and Other Investment Agglomerations:Average Hedge Funds and Their EvaluationIncentives and Risk Taking in Hedge FundsEvaluating Superior Hedge FundsInvestment in Own-Company StockCutting Through the Hype on Sovereign Wealth FundsA New Age for LiquidityGovernment Owned Pensions: Asset Allocation and Governance IssuesUpdate on Yale's Approach to Endowment InvestingA Risk Arbitrage Convergence Trade: The Nikkei Put Warrant Market of 1989–90Kelly Capital Growth InvestingInnoALM, the Innovest Austrian Pension Fund Financial Planning ModelSeasonal Effects and Other Anomalies:Investing in the January Turn-of-the-Year Effect with Index FuturesThe January BarometerSell-in-May-and-Go-Away and the Effect of the Fed60–40 Pension Fund Mixes and Presidential Party EffectsVolatility, Correlation and Liquidity:Thoughts on the VIX Fear IndexChanging Correlations: Rising VIX and Violent Market MovesCan We Predict Stock Market Crashes?:Stock Market Crashes in 2006–2009: Were We Able to Predict Them?Three Mini Crashes in US and World Equity MarketsWhat Signals Worked and What Did Not, 1980–2009What Signals Worked and What Did Not, 1980–2009, Part IIWhat Signals Worked and What Did Not, 1980–2009, Part IIIHow to Lose Money in Derivatives and Examples of Those Who DidBubbles and Debt:Understanding the Financial Markets in the Subprime Era: The 2007/9 CrisisBubblesChina: Navigating the Olympic RisksTurkey's Juggling Act: Can It Live Up to Potential?Testing Resiliency: Protest and Natural DisastersIt's a Gas, Gas, Gas!Thoughts on the Current Market Environment, Risks and ReturnsWhat's Wrong with The US?Investing Around the WorldInvesting and Arbitrage in NFL Football and Horse Racing:Blunder or Correct Decision? The Belichick Decision to Go for It on 4th DownThe 2010 and 2011 Super Bowls and the Elo Ranking SystemRisk Arbitrage in the NFL 2012 Playoffs and the Super BowlThe One That Got Away: The Hitable $2 Million Pick 6 at the Breeders' CupTwo Super HorsesFarewell to the Queen and to the Princess of US Thoroughbred RacingThe Dr Z Place and Show Racetrack Betting Systems Past and Present Readership: Hedge fund managers, insurance managers, pension fund managers, mutual fund managers and other investment professionals and investors; students and researchers interested in risk management and investment management; investment strategies. Keywords:Hedge Funds;Sovereign Wealth Funds;Investment Agglomerations;Endowment Investing;Stock Market Crashes and Their Prediction;Global Economic Situation;Global Investment Strategies;Kelly and Fractional Kelly Wagering Strategies;Calendar Anomalies;Political Party;Time of Year EffectsKey Features:Contains case studies of great investment successes and blowouts to better assess explicit and implicit risks and mismatches in maturities and investment horizonDiscusses strategies used by the greatest investors to obtain their high returns and how these can be replicatedAnalyzes hedge fund concepts and performance including major fund disastersContains studies of pivotal economies that will shape the globe and investment prospects in years to comeReviews: "The prolific Ziembas have done it again! These days the markets may move like lightning but Rachel and Bill have no trouble keeping up. You don't need to look any further than this book for crucial information, insights and ideas." Paul Wilmott Mathematician and Author "Puzzled by today's markets and what to expect? Rachel and Bill Ziemba explain what has been happening and sharpen your thinking about future scenarios." Edward O Thorp Author of Beat the Dealer and Beat the Market
This volume provides the definitive treatment of fortune's formula or the Kelly capital growth criterion as it is often called. The strategy is to maximize long run wealth of the investor by maximizing the period by period expected utility of wealth with a logarithmic utility function. Mathematical theorems show that only the log utility function maximizes asymptotic long run wealth and minimizes the expected time to arbitrary large goals. In general, the strategy is risky in the short term but as the number of bets increase, the Kelly bettor's wealth tends to be much larger than those with essentially different strategies. So most of the time, the Kelly bettor will have much more wealth than these other bettors but the Kelly strategy can lead to considerable losses a small percent of the time. There are ways to reduce this risk at the cost of lower expected final wealth using fractional Kelly strategies that blend the Kelly suggested wager with cash. The various classic reprinted papers and the new ones written specifically for this volume cover various aspects of the theory and practice of dynamic investing. Good and bad properties are discussed, as are fixed-mix and volatility induced growth strategies. The relationships with utility theory and the use of these ideas by great investors are featured.Contents: "The Early Ideas and Contributions: "Introduction to the Early Ideas and ContributionsExposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk (translated by Louise Sommer) "(D Bernoulli)"A New Interpretation of Information Rate "(J R Kelly, Jr)"Criteria for Choice among Risky Ventures "(H A Latan‚)"Optimal Gambling Systems for Favorable Games "(L Breiman)"Optimal Gambling Systems for Favorable Games "(E O Thorp)"Portfolio Choice and the Kelly Criterion "(E O Thorp)"Optimal Investment and Consumption Strategies under Risk for a Class of Utility Functions "(N H Hakansson)"On Optimal Myopic Portfolio Policies, with and without Serial Correlation of Yields "(N H Hakansson)"Evidence on the ?Growth-Optimum-Model? "(R Roll)""Classic Papers and Theories: "Introduction to the Classic Papers and TheoriesCompetitive Optimality of Logarithmic Investment "(R M Bell and T M Cover)"A Bound on the Financial Value of Information "(A R Barron and T M Cover)"Asymptotic Optimality and Asymptotic Equipartition Properties of Log-Optimum Investment "(P H Algoet and T M Cover)"Universal Portfolios "(T M Cover)"The Cost of Achieving the Best Portfolio in Hindsight "(E Ordentlich and T M Cover)"Optimal Strategies for Repeated Games "(M Finkelstein and R Whitley)"The Effect of Errors in Means, Variances and Co-Variances on Optimal Portfolio Choice "(V K Chopra and W T Ziemba)"Time to Wealth Goals in Capital Accumulation "(L C MacLean, W T Ziemba, and Y Li)"Survival and Evolutionary Stability of Rule the Kelly "(I V Evstigneev, T Hens, and K R Schenk-Hopp‚)"Application of the Kelly Criterion to Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Processes "(Y Lv and B K Meister)""The Relationship of Kelly Optimization to Asset Allocation: "Introduction to the Relationship of Kelly Optimization to Asset AllocationSurvival and Growth with a Liability: Optimal Portfolio Strategies in Continuous Time "(S Browne)"Growth versus Security in Dynamic Investment Analysis "(L C MacLean, W T Ziemba, and G Blazenko)"Capital Growth with Security "(L C MacLean, R Sanegre, Y Zhao, and W T Ziemba)"
This Handbook covers major topics in global health economics and public policy and provides a timely, systematic review of the field. Edited by Richard M Scheffler, Distinguished Professor of Health Economics and Public Policy and Director of the Global Center for Health Economics and Policy Research at the University of California, Berkeley, the Handbook features academics and practitioners from more than a dozen countries. Contributors are from the London School of Economics and Political Science, Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona, University of York, University of Oslo, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, University of California - Berkeley, Stanford University, Johns Hopkins University, University of Toronto, University of Oxford, Harvard Medical School, OECD, the World Health Organization and the World Bank, many of whom have also acted as economic and policy advisors to government and non-governmental organizations across the world. Experts in these areas who provide critical analyses and relevant data for further exploration and research include: Thomas E Getzen, Executive Director of the International Health Economics Association (iHEA); Douglas E Hough, Associate Scientist and Associate Director of the Master in Healthcare Management programme at the Bloomberg School of Public Health of John Hopkins University; Guillem López-Casasnovas, former President of iHEA and member of the Advisory Council of the Spanish Health and Social Welfare Ministry and of the Advisory Council of the Catalan Health Ministry since 1984; Alistair McGuire, Professor of Health Economics at the London School of Economics and Political and advisor to a number of governments and governmental bodies across Europe; Tor Iversen, Research Director at the Health Economics Research Programme at the University of Oslo and former member of the iHEA Arrow Award Committee 2007–2011; William H Dow, Professor and Associate Dean for Research at University of California ,Berkeley and former Senior Economist for the Council of Economic Advisors (White House); Audrey Laporte, the Director of the Canadian Centre for Health Economics; Alexander S Preker, President and CEO of Health Investment & Financing Corporation; Ayda Yurekli, who initiated and developed the World Health Organization TaXSiM simulation model that has been used by many Ministries of Finance around the world for the development of tax policies; Marko Vujicic, Managing Vice President of the Health Policy Resources Center at the American Dental Association; Mark Sculpher, Director of the Programme on Economic Evaluation and Health Technology Assessment at the University of York and former President of the International Society of Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) (2011–2012); and Peter Berman, who has had almost 40 years of experience in global health and was formerly a Lead Health Economist at the World Bank. The Handbook spans across three volumes. The chapters deal with key global issues in health economics, are evidence-based, and offer innovative policy alternatives and solutions. The Handbook's approach toward global health economics and public policy will make it a useful resource for health economists, policymakers, private sector companies, NGOs, government decision-makers and those who manage healthcare systems. Errata(s) Errata (255 KB) Contents:Volume 1 — The Economics of Health and Health Systems:Healthcare Spending and Economic Growth (Edit V Velenyi)Macroeconomics, Trade and Health (Richard Smith, Marcus Keogh-Brown and Johanna Hanefeld)Measuring and Forecasting Global Health Expenditures (Thomas E Getzen)Economics of Financing Health Care (Alexander S Preker, Sherry Glied, Dov Chernichovsky, and Marisa Gil Lapetra)Alternative Financing Strategies for Universal Health Coverage (Joseph Kutzin, Winnie Yip, and Cheryl Cashin)Global Risk-Adjusted Payment Models (Camilo Cid, Randall P Ellis, Verónica Vargas, Juergen Wasem, and Lorena Prieto)Resource Allocation and Priority Setting in Health Care Systems (Guillem Lopez-Casasnovas and Laura Pellise)Estimating Health Care Treatment Costs (Alistair McGuire and Maria Raikou)Incentivizing Health Care Utilization and Health Outcomes (William H Dow, Justin S White, and Stefano Bertozzi)Economic Evaluation of Healthcare Programmes and Interventions: Applications to Low- and Middle-Income Countries (Paul Revill, Beth Woods, and Mark J Sculpher)Inequalities and Inequities in Health and Health Care (Marisol Rodríguez and Rosa Urbanos-Garrido)Volume 2 — Health Determinants and Outcomes:Mental Health (Martin Knapp and Valentina Iemmi)Aging and Long-Term Care (Audrey Laporte and Meghan McMahon)Dental Care (Marko Vujicic, Eduardo Bernabé, Daniela Garbin Neumann, Carlos Quiñonez and Elizabeth Mertz)Personalized Medicine: Economic Evaluation and Evidence (Kathryn A Phillips, Katherine Payne, and Ken Redekop)Social Capital and Health (Lorenzo Rocco and Eline Aas)Economics of Tobacco Control and Health (Ayda Yurekli, Nigar Nargis, Mark Goodchild, Chonlathan Visaruthvong, Sophia Delipalla, Evan Blecher, Anne-Marie Perucic, Teh-Wei Hu, Anita Lee, and Frank Chaloupka)Health Effects of Alcohol Consumption (Catherine Lau and Alex Lau)The Health Impacts of Obesity (Franco Sassi, Marion Devaux and Michele Cecchini)The Economics of Women's Health in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Life Cycle Approach (Marcella Alsan, Afsan Bhadelia, Patricia Foo, Corinna Haberland, and Felicia Knaul)The Role of Policy Making for Investing in Women's and Children's Health (Flavia Bustreo, Jennifer Franz-Vasdeki, Shyama Kuruvilla, Blerta Maliqi, and Rachael Hinton)Behavioral Economics: Health Applications in the US (Douglas E Hough)Behavioral Economics: Health Applications in the UK (Adam Oliver)Volume 3 — Health System Characteristics and Performance:Hospital Quality and Performance Around the Globe (Barbara McPake)Global Human Resources for Health (Joanne Spetz, Michelle Tellez, and Brent Fulton)Impact and Costs of Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology (Panos Kanavos)Technological Innovation in Health Care: A Global Perspective (Sheila Smith)Primary Care: Effectiveness and Costs (Tor Iversen)Health Systems Performance (Peter Berman)Pay for Performance in Health Systems: Theory, Evidence and Case Studies (Jed Friedman and Richard M Scheffler)Medical Tourism (Johanna Hanefeld, Richard Smith, and Thinakorn Noree)Public–Private Partnerships (Pedro Pita Barros and Rui Sousa Monteiro)Translational Health Economics (Wolf Rogowski, Jürgen John, and Maarten IJjzerman)

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